Sydney Strategic Model Re-estimation: Licence, Car Ownership and Frequency Models

RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decisionmaking in the public interest through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the sponsor. iii Preface RAND Europe were commissioned by the Transport Data Centre (TDC) (now known as the Bureau of Transport Statistics) of the New South Wales Ministry of Transport (now known as Transport NSW) to re-estimate the travel demand model components of the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (STM). The STM was designed by Hague Consulting Group (1997). In Stage 1 of model development (1999–2000), Hague Consulting Group developed mode-destination and frequency models for commuting travel, as well as models of licence ownership and car ownership, and a forecasting system was developed incorporating these components. In Stage 2 of model development (2001-02), RAND Europe, incorporating Hague Consulting Group, developed mode and destination and frequency models for the remaining home-based purposes, as well as for non-home-based business travel. Then, during 2003–2004, RAND Europe undertook a detailed validation of the performance of the Stage 1 and 2 models. Finally, Halcrow undertook Phase 3 of model development (2007), in which they re-estimated the home–work mode-destination models, and at the same time developed models of access mode choice to train for home–work travel. By 2009, some model parameters were nearly ten years old, raising concerns that the model may no longer reflect with sufficient accuracy the current behaviour of residents of Sydney. Furthermore, changes to the zone structure of the model occurred with the number of zones approximately trebling in number, and the area of coverage increased to include Newcastle and Wollongong. Therefore TDC decided to commission this study to re-estimate the STM models. In this stage of model development, the models estimated during Stages 1 to 3 have been re-estimated to use more recent Household Travel Survey data in order to reflect travel conditions for a new 2006 base year. The disaggregate licence holding and car ownership models have been-estimated to reflect the 2006 base year, and the model specifications have been updated. The cohort licence projection procedure has also been updated to reflect the 2006 base year, and now projects forwards …